The Resolution Foundation’s latest report ‘Low Pay Britain’, published this month, explores the changing nature of low-paid work and highlights new evidence in support of the UK Government’s proposed reforms to zero-hours contracts. A key part of that analysis draws on data developed through the Wage and Employment Dynamics (WED) project — offering new insight into patterns of hours insecurity that are often hidden in standard labour market statistics.
Using linked data to understand who might benefit from changes
One of the central proposals in the Government’s Employment Rights Bill (ERB) is a new right for workers to request a contract that reflects their actual working hours, if they have been regularly working more than their contracted hours over a 12-week period. However, there is limited data available on how many workers this would apply to.
To fill this gap, this Low Pay Britain 2025 report by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy uses a dataset created as part of the WED project that links HMRC Real Time Information (RTI) with the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). This allows researchers to estimate actual hours worked week by week in 2019–20, and to compare that with workers’ usual or contracted hours.
This linked dataset enabled the authors of this report to identify a substantial group of workers who consistently worked more than 25 hours per week despite having contracts that suggest lower hours, many of whom could benefit from the new right to a regular-hours contract.
Evidence of hours volatility and insecurity
The same linked data was also used to shed light on earnings and hours volatility among low-paid workers, particularly those in sectors such as hospitality, retail, and social care. The report notes that 2.4 million workers report anxiety about last-minute shift changes, a problem that stems in part from this unpredictability.
By analysing how hours varied across the year for weekly-paid workers, the WED-linked data helps to illustrate the scale of this insecurity, and the extent to which it disproportionately affects those in already precarious roles.
Why this matters
This is a clear example of how linked administrative can help answer important policy questions that cannot be addressed using traditional datasets alone. The WED project was established to improve our understanding of wage and employment dynamics over time, and this analysis demonstrates how such data can be applied to current debates around job quality and labour market reform.
The Low Pay Britain 2025 report concludes that while the wider economic impact of the Employment Rights Bill is likely to be modest, the potential benefits for affected workers, in terms of greater security and predictability, are significant. It also notes that the UK still lags behind many OECD countries on basic employment protections, and that further steps will be needed beyond the current legislation.
We’re pleased to see WED data contributing to this wider evidence base, and helping inform practical discussions about the future of work in the UK.